Comparing Expected Pick Value with Expected Trade Value

Draft Pick Value Chart

Mean Approximate Value at the half-round marks

Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart

Valuation Comparison

  • Aggressively trade-down from the top of the first round. That’s the section in which there’s the greatest disconnect between trade value and Approximate Career Value. The discrepancies between expected value and trade value are even more extreme, had I gone more granular than half rounds per
  • Given that we now expect that the drop-off in player value is far less steep than common wisdom dictates, volume is king. Honestly, just having a large rookie class is a virtue in and of itself, owing to their artificially constrained contracts. Even when they perform exactly to expectations, they outperform in value/$ when compared to FA acquisitions or players receiving a contract extension.



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